On 2008-08-03, Ben Wade <three@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Wolf Leverich wrote:
>> On 2008-08-03, Ben Wade <three@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>> Wolf Leverich wrote:
>>>> On 2008-08-03, Ben Wade <three@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>>>> Wolf Leverich wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> BTW, if you want to blame someone for the short-term run-up
>>>>>> in oil prices, blame Republicans.
>>>>> You stupid bastard, that's the dumbest thing you said all day.
>>>>>
>>>>> Bugger off, liar.
>>>>
>>>> Um, which part was inaccurate?
>>> All of it.
>>>
>>>> ###
>>>>
>>>> The industry is having a feeding frenzy?
>>> On what?
>>
>> Consumer dollars.
>
> Do tell...so DEMAND drives profits...who knew....
So does supply restriction in inelastic markets.
Can you say "OPEC"?
Can you say "American oil companies restricting
refinery capacity"?
###
>>>> All the majors are re****ting record profits.
>>> Yet the profit margins remain the same - 8%.
>>
>> First, if it were true, it would be irrelevant.
>
> Oh my, would it now?
>
> You poor stupid bastard, you walked right into that:
>
> http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/120.html
>
> Industry Center - Major Integrated Oil & Gas
> Market Capitalization: 1,629B
> Price / Earnings: 9.6
> Price / Book: 2.8
> Net Profit Margin (mrq): 8.8%
>
> http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/821.html
>
> Industry Center - Application Software
> Market Capitalization: 488B
> Price / Earnings: 19.6
> Price / Book: 17.9
> Net Profit Margin (mrq): 23.2%
So?
This shows that margins on oil is lower than margins
on software. That's meaningless. Margins vary by
industry, and are driven by many factors.
Earlier, you asserted that oil profit margins are
steady at 8%.
So, where's the evidence?
###
>> Record
>> profits -- profits that are approaching $1,000 a year for
>> every man, woman, and child in America -- are, ahem,
>> record profits.
>
> And record demand in China and India are record DEMAND!
>
> http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/29/content_8075648.htm
>
> BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Soaring oil prices have not slowed China's
> consumption of oil as statistics show that China's apparent consumption
> of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first
> quarter of the year.
>
> According to statistics released Tuesday by the China Petroleum and
> Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China's apparent consumption of
> oil products composed of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 16.5
> percent year on year to 52.73 million tonnes in the first three months,
> and crude oil, rose by eight percent to91.8 million tonnes.
>
> Remember that's a nation of 1.3 BILLION people with at present only 33
> MILLION cars.
>
> DO THE MATH!
Sure, and they didn't all just arrive yesterday and they
are still a quite poor nation. Nothing's going on that
would justify a sudden doubling or tripling of oil prices.
###
>> Second of all, the margin thing is wrong. Identify the
>> source, and I'll explain to you what's going on.
>
> Oh do - have at, you netwit!
I still don't know where you got the stable margins thing.
>>>> ###
>>>>
>>>> Republicans have been blocking CAFE standards and such?
>>> The Bush energy plan provided hybrid car subsidies, try again.
>>
>> Wow, cool. An actual, honest-to-gosh fact. I'm impressed.
>
> And swiftly upbriaded.
Upbriaded?
###
>> And note that Republicans are blocking increased CAFE
>> standards and virtually all other conservation measures.
>
> Here's a hint - the MARKET can handle it.
>
> When people DEMAND high mileage, that's precisely what they will get!
>
> http://gm-volt.com/
No, actually, this is a case of market failure.
Consumers are famously myopic, and will choose to buy a
(initially) cheaper vehicle even if it results in a
higher lifetime cost.
This "myopia" is why people still buy incandescent bulbs.
Also, if the good doesn't exist, then the market can't
signal demand. I live in the country, and I need a truck.
I can't buy a pluggable hybrid for any price. There's no
way for me to signal my demand to Detroit.
And there are other technical reasons why the market isn't
and won't work here.
>> ###
>>
>>> {off topic partisan spin indictments deleted}
>>
>> Which part of record deficits devaluing our currency and
>> driving up oil prices is partisan spin?
>
> Which part of regular economic cycles do you not grasp, or do just
> dislike us having stronger ex****ts?
You want stronger ex****ts because your production
facilities are more efficient than everyone else's,
and not because you've debased your own currency.
>> The record deficits are just a fact, like the sky is blue.
>
> Big whoop.
You're a Democrat, right?
###
>> Pretty much all economists will tell you that persistant
>> large deficits will debase the currency. Printing money
>> isn't a good thing.
>
> Care to cite how much we're printing?
By definition, the deficit is the amount of money the
government has printed.
###
>> The falling dollar inherently increases foreign oil costs.
>> That's how currency swings work. It's physics.
>
> And at the same time a weak dollar increases our ex****ts.
It's the wrong way to generate ex****ts. You want more
efficient production. When you generate ex****ts through
weak currency, in effect you are giving away your products.
###
>> It's a matter of record that Republicans have recently
>> blocked anti-speculation legislation.
>
> It's matter of record that much of the "speculation" is being driven by
> large pension funds like CALPERS.
Actually, pension funds have some strong limitations based
upon their fiduciary responsibilities. They do provide some
of the capital being used by hedge funds, but you have an
incorrect understanding of the situation if you think CALPERS
management is sitting somewhere planning to corner the oil
market.
And pensions funds are not the big winners in these things.
###
>> I miss the old days, when the reality-impaired folks were
>> all Democrats.
>
> They still are, you just deluded yourself into believing that throttling
> the free market out of existence will be a good thing.
>
> You poor ****ing fool.
What free market?
You think oil is a free market? OPEC? The fewer-than-Seven Sisters?
You think autos are a free market, with just a handful of players?
"Free market" is something you see when 50 farmers are in the town
square all selling the same lettuce. For just about everything else,
the interesting issues all involve how the free market is failing,
and what can be done to patch up the brokenness.
Cheers, Wolf.
--
Dr. Brian Leverich Co-moderator, soc.genealogy.methods/GENMTD-L
Angeles Chapter LTC Admin Chair http://angeles.sierraclub.org/ltc/
P.O. Box 6831, Frazier Park, CA 93222-6831 leverich@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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